Author: Patrick Brown; Prabhat Jha
Title: Mortality from COVID-19 in 12 countries and 6 states of the United States Document date: 2020_4_22
ID: 2r4uty9g_36
Snippet: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.17.20069161 doi: medRxiv preprint reporting across countries does not bias the results for any one country however, as mortality forecasts rely on actual counts within each country. Third, in settings with few deaths over many days, the model becomes highly sensitive to the assumed prior distributions. However, the model validation (Suppl.....
Document: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.17.20069161 doi: medRxiv preprint reporting across countries does not bias the results for any one country however, as mortality forecasts rely on actual counts within each country. Third, in settings with few deaths over many days, the model becomes highly sensitive to the assumed prior distributions. However, the model validation (Supplementary Appendix) showed reasonably good performance with actual death counts in several countries. As with all models, ours emphasizes the need to obtain additional days of observation and rerun the analyses as data improve, and as additional epidemiological research results become available. 26 The GCAM is set up to be do so, hence its results improve constantly.
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