Estimation of COVID-19 outbreak size in Harbin, China

Song, Haitao; Jia, Zhongwei; Jin, Zhen; Liu, Shengqiang

Since the first level response to public health emergencies was launched on January 25, 2020, in Heilongjiang province, China, the outbreak of COVID-19 seems to be under control. However, an outbreak of COVID-19 caused by imported cases developed in Harbin during April 2020. A mathematical model is established to investigate the transmission of COVID-19 in Harbin. Based on the dynamical analysis and data fitting, the research investigates the outbreak of COVID-19 in Harbin and estimates the outbreak size of COVID-19 in Harbin. The outbreak size estimated of COVID-19 in Harbin reaches 174, where 54% of infected cases were identified while 46% of infected cases were not found out. We should maintain vigilance against unfound infected people. Our findings suggest that the effective reproduction number decreased drastically in contrast with the value of 3.6 on April 9; after that the effective interventions were implemented by the Heilongjiang province government. Finally, the effective reproduction number arrived at the value of 0.04 which is immensely below the threshold value 1, which means that the Heilongjiang province government got the outbreak of COVID-19 in Harbin under control.