Author: Xiang Zhou; Na Hong; Yingying Ma; Jie He; Huizhen Jiang; Chun Liu; Guangliang Shan; Longxiang Su; Weiguo Zhu; Yun Long
Title: Forecasting the Worldwide Spread of COVID-19 based on Logistic Model and SEIR Model Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: 52zjm9jt_37
Snippet: In Scenario 2, the basic SEIR results showed that the confirmed cases will take 9-22 months (275-650 days) to reach their peak, and most of the population would eventually be infected over a long period of time if there are no control measures. Appendix C lists the detailed results of the basic SEIR model predictions of different countries. In addition, the active number of cases at the peak time will reach approximately 10-20% of these countries.....
Document: In Scenario 2, the basic SEIR results showed that the confirmed cases will take 9-22 months (275-650 days) to reach their peak, and most of the population would eventually be infected over a long period of time if there are no control measures. Appendix C lists the detailed results of the basic SEIR model predictions of different countries. In addition, the active number of cases at the peak time will reach approximately 10-20% of these countries' populations, thus overloading the healthcare system, which is the worst possible scenario, as shown in Table 2 .
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