Author: Jacob Deasy; Emma Rocheteau; Katharina Kohler; Daniel J. Stubbs; Peitro Barbiero; Pietro Liò; Ari Ercole
Title: Forecasting ultra-early intensive care strain from COVID-19 in England Document date: 2020_3_23
ID: i37ygb2z_4
Snippet: We used COVID-19 diagnoses from England as reported by Public Health England (PHE) and matched to NHS commissioning regions [8] as our source data to obtain information on daily cases (reproduced in Figure 1 ). We started to extract this data feed on 13/03/20 to give daily case data. Figure 1 : Model timeline. Our model relies on a n-day window for regression, beginning 13/03 with recent observed data. Themodel predicts two weeks into the future .....
Document: We used COVID-19 diagnoses from England as reported by Public Health England (PHE) and matched to NHS commissioning regions [8] as our source data to obtain information on daily cases (reproduced in Figure 1 ). We started to extract this data feed on 13/03/20 to give daily case data. Figure 1 : Model timeline. Our model relies on a n-day window for regression, beginning 13/03 with recent observed data. Themodel predicts two weeks into the future from the time of writing. Figure 2: Regional demographics and expected critical care demand per case of COVID-19, stratified by region and compared to ICU bed capacity per 100,000 people. Population is divided into age categories and percentage of cases requiring ICU is divided into expected percentage of survivors and non-survivors. The numerical data can be seen in Table 1 .
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