Author: Richard A Neher; Robert Dyrdak; Valentin Druelle; Emma B Hodcroft; Jan Albert
Title: Potential impact of seasonal forcing on a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic Document date: 2020_2_17
ID: 3p2dl8yf_28
Snippet: Every location has a different socio-economic profile such that the growth rate of the epidemic (and hence R 0 ) might differ. The superposition of many such subpopulations with a range of R 0 values and seasonal variation in transmission will result in dynamics that are qualitatively different from a single population SIR model. In particular, such variation result in a pandemic spread out over 2 years before the virus possibly becomes endemic. .....
Document: Every location has a different socio-economic profile such that the growth rate of the epidemic (and hence R 0 ) might differ. The superposition of many such subpopulations with a range of R 0 values and seasonal variation in transmission will result in dynamics that are qualitatively different from a single population SIR model. In particular, such variation result in a pandemic spread out over 2 years before the virus possibly becomes endemic. Fig. 4 shows the result of such a simulation of 1,000 populations. Populations were divided between northern temperate (50%), southern temperate (10%), and tropical (40%) and assigned parameters as follows:
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