Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation: Practice predictions for the Year 2023

Farhadfar, Nosha; Burns, Linda J.; Mupfudze, Tatenda; Shaw, Bronwen E.; Bollard, Catherine M.; Devine, Steven M.; Horowitz, Mary M.; Jones, Richard J.; Murthy, Hemant S.; Wingard, John R.; Lee, Stephanie J.

BACKGROUND: Research priorities are best determined by the most pressing scientific questions, in the context of current knowledge. However, definitive research studies take time while real-world experience accumulates. Adoption of new practices before adequate comparison to current treatments threaten successful study conduct and may expose patients to what is ultimately learned to be inferior treatment. We conducted a survey to understand the Hematopoietic Cell Transplant (HCT) community's predictions about (a) future practice trends in the HCT field and (b) results of ongoing Blood and Marrow Transplant Clinical Trials Network (BMT CTN) trials to gauge how the HCT community views the treatments being studied. METHOD: The survey was distributed between February and March 2019 to an electronic mailing list maintained by the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research (CIBMTR) of HCT clinicians practicing in the United States. RESULTS: Of 986 clinicians surveyed, 315 responded (32%). They predicted an increase in the number of HCTs performed for malignant hematologic diseases and benign diseases such as sickle cell, autoimmune and genetic disorders. The majority (63%) predicted that matched related donors (MRD) will remain the preferred donor source for adult HCT recipients in 2023 but 21% predicted haploidentical (Haplo) and 17% predicted matched unrelated donors (MUD) would be the preferred donors. Most respondents (65%) predicted a decrease in the use of umbilical cord blood (UCB) as a graft source for HCT. Most respondents also predicted that calcineurin-based graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) prophylaxis would be replaced by post-transplant cyclophosphamide (PTCy) (55%), biomarker use would become standard practice to guide GVHD therapy (73%), and steroids would be combined with other agents for first line therapy for newly diagnosed acute and (53%) chronic GVHD (54%). In ongoing BMT CTN trials where outcomes are not yet known, 60% to 92% of respondents had an opinion about which arm they thought would be superior. However, not all respondents predicted the same outcome with a range of 44% to 88% choosing the same arm. There was not a clear relationship between the proportion predicting the same arm would win and accrual to the trial. CONCLUSION: Survey respondents are optimistic about growth in the volume of transplant procedures, and they also expect significant changes in the practice of HCT over the next few years including wider adoption of PTCy GVHD prophylaxis, increased use of biomarkers to guide GVHD therapy, and decreased use of UCB HCT. The degree of equipoise in the community about the relative efficacy of therapies being studied did not seem to affect accrual to current BMT CTN trials but this is an area that needs further investigation.