Uncoordinated Human Responses During Epidemic Outbreaks

Poletti, Piero; Caprile, Bruno; Ajelli, Marco; Merler, Stefano

Uncoordinated human behavioral responses triggered by risk perception can alter the evolution of an epidemic outbreak further and beyond control measures imposed by public authorities. In fact, spontaneous behavioral changes could develop as a defensive response during the spread of an epidemic, thereby impacting the epidemic dynamics and affecting timing and overall number of cases. In this chapter, a model coupling the classic SIR disease transmission model with an imitation dynamics process is introduced which accounts for the diffusion of different behaviors in the population as a response to the epidemic threat. A detailed analysis of the model identifies the main determinants leading to remarkable alterations in infection dynamics in both risk perception and diffusion of human behavioral patterns. Empirical evidence points to the need of incorporating human behavior in prediction models informing public health decisions.