Parametric analysis of early data on COVID-19 expansion in selected European countries

Martin Spousta

Left and middle panel of Figure 3 show the prediction for the t max values and N (t max ) values, respectively, as a function of time since the first registered case. One can therefore see what prediction one would make in the past. The current prediction is represented by the last point of the distribution. One can again see that the prediction does not change over the last ∼ 20 and ∼ 10 days in the case of Italy and France, respectively. As said before, these countries seem to be on a highly predictable trajectory which can be illustrated for Italy by evaluating the prediction for the total number of cases for today which one would make 20 days ago. The prediction would be 100970 cases while data for today (30th of March) show 101740 cases. For the case of Czechia, one can see an evolution towards more optimistic scenario as the time increases. At the same time, the prediction remains relatively stable over the last few days.