Author: Robert L Shuler
Title: Partial unlock model for COVID-19 or similar pandemic averts medical and economic disaster Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: lmmrnitr_15
Snippet: The purpose of this paper is more to illustrate an approach than to propose a specific model. We 70 suggest following Huppert and Katriel's guidance: "To examine which of the predictions made by a 71 model are trustworthy, it is essential to examine the outcomes of different models. Thus, if a highly 72 simplified model makes a prediction, and if the same or a very similar prediction is made by a more 73 elaborate model that includes some mechani.....
Document: The purpose of this paper is more to illustrate an approach than to propose a specific model. We 70 suggest following Huppert and Katriel's guidance: "To examine which of the predictions made by a 71 model are trustworthy, it is essential to examine the outcomes of different models. Thus, if a highly 72 simplified model makes a prediction, and if the same or a very similar prediction is made by a more 73 elaborate model that includes some mechanisms or details that the first model did not, then we gain 74 some confidence that the prediction is robust. An important benefit derived from mathematical 75 modelling activity is that it demands transparency and accuracy regarding our assumptions, thus 76 enabling us to test our understanding of the disease epidemiology by comparing model results and 77 observed patterns. Models can also assist in decision-making by making projections regarding 78 important issues such as intervention-induced changes in the spread of disease." [5] 79
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