Dynamical balance between the transmission, intervention of COVID-19 and economic development

Zhang, Z.; Lin, H.; Zhu, G.

The current explosive outbreak of coronavirus (COVID-19) is posing serious threats to public health and economy around the world. To clarify the coupling mechanism between this disease and economy, a new dynamical system is established. It is theoretically proved that the basic reproduction number is a nonlinear combination of parameters regarding disease transmission, intervention and economy effect, which totally determines the stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria. Further results indicate the existence of interaction and mutual restraint among the transmission, intervention and economy, in which strong coupling of COVID-19 and economy would trigger disease outbreak and form poverty trap, while adaptive isolation of at-risk population could effectively reduce morbidity at the cost of least economic loss. Our findings can offer new insights to improve the intervention strategies against COVID-19.