Author: Pedro S. Peixoto; Diego R. Marcondes; Cláudia M Peixoto; Lucas Queiroz; Rafael Gouveia; Afonso Delgado; Sérgio M Oliva
Title: Potential dissemination of epidemics based on Brazilian mobile geolocation data. Part I: Population dynamics and future spreading of infection in the states of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro during the pandemic of COVID-19. Document date: 2020_4_11
ID: ioig3ldz_34
Snippet: Although the SI model is not suitable for long forecasts, since it does not take into account the Recovered and Exposed individuals, we wish to explore it to simulate the spread until the end of April 2020. But, as there is no mobility data available beyond March 30th 2020, we will use the mean transition matrices from the corresponding weekday in March 2020 when simulating the spread in April. At we start with one single infected case in the sta.....
Document: Although the SI model is not suitable for long forecasts, since it does not take into account the Recovered and Exposed individuals, we wish to explore it to simulate the spread until the end of April 2020. But, as there is no mobility data available beyond March 30th 2020, we will use the mean transition matrices from the corresponding weekday in March 2020 when simulating the spread in April. At we start with one single infected case in the state's capital and zero in the other cities, and simulate how the disease spreads spatially within the states.
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