Author: Rendani R Mbuvha; Tshilidzi Marwala
Title: On Data-Driven Management of the COVID-19 Outbreak in South Africa Document date: 2020_4_10
ID: g5bhkd55_35
Snippet: We calibrate the SIR using the reported confirmed South African COVID-19 cases. We follow the framework proposed by [10] for inference of the number of COVID-19 infections from the total number of reported cases to establish initial conditions for the SIR. Specifically, following [10, 11] who suggest that reported confirmed cases represent between 0.2% and 1% of the total infected population. Thus we scale up the confirmed cases reported on 05/04.....
Document: We calibrate the SIR using the reported confirmed South African COVID-19 cases. We follow the framework proposed by [10] for inference of the number of COVID-19 infections from the total number of reported cases to establish initial conditions for the SIR. Specifically, following [10, 11] who suggest that reported confirmed cases represent between 0.2% and 1% of the total infected population. Thus we scale up the confirmed cases reported on 05/04/2020 using correction factors from Hubei, China and Lombardy Italy [10] . We further assume an infectious period of 14 days as suggested by [1] and explore basic reproductive numbers of 2,3,4 inline with related literature [1, 4, 9] .
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