The impact of foreign direct investment on emission reduction targets: evidence from high- and middle-income countries

Marques, António Cardoso; Caetano, Rafaela

Besides bringing countries closer, the effects of globalization can help increase the production of goods and services, and foster economic growth. Foreign direct investment (FDI) is one of the processes of globalization. One aspect of globalization that has piqued the interest of economists, is the transfer of polluting industries between countries. A principal factor in this are discrepancies of environmental regulations, and these have also been instrumental in a failure to control pollution worldwide. With this impasse in mind, a Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag was applied to evaluate the impacts of FDI on the carbon dioxide emissions of 21 countries divided by income level, for a period from 2001 to 2017. This methodology allowed the analysis of the resulting dynamics of pollution into the short-run and long-run. The characteristics of efficiency, innovation, and regulation are crucial to better understand the consequences of flows in FDI. Regulation seems to increase pollution in high-income countries, which merits further discussion. FDI decreases emissions in high-income countries, while increasing them in the short-run in middle-income countries, which supports the Pollution Haven Hypothesis. Nonetheless, the capacity of middle-income countries to absorb technology is crucial for them to benefit in the long-run. Trade openness is also highly influenced by environmental regulation in middle-income countries. Since our aim is to understand the transfer of polluting industries, an analysis of emissions from the industrial sector provided a robustness check. It also revealed that policymakers do not seem to be paying sufficient attention to innovation and controlling the environmental degradation that this sector causes.