Author: Arsath Abbasali Ayubali; Sara Roshini Satheesh
Title: On predicting the novel COVID-19 human infections by using Infectious Disease modelling method in the Indian State of Tamil Nadu during 2020 Document date: 2020_4_7
ID: 660ul4fb_34
Snippet: The first case of Novel Corona virus infection was found on March 7, 2020 in the State Tamil Nadu. It is reported from quarantine and clinical observations (WHO, 2020), that the average incubation period of New Corona virus infection was 7 days, so considering that, one believes that the first patient who is with infection of COVID-19 may already exist on February 29, 2020. It is said that, the infected patient has a travel history to Oman. In or.....
Document: The first case of Novel Corona virus infection was found on March 7, 2020 in the State Tamil Nadu. It is reported from quarantine and clinical observations (WHO, 2020), that the average incubation period of New Corona virus infection was 7 days, so considering that, one believes that the first patient who is with infection of COVID-19 may already exist on February 29, 2020. It is said that, the infected patient has a travel history to Oman. In order to obtain a precise prediction, we have classified those who have been infected with the COVID-19 but are not diagnosed as latent human; when the latent humans are diagnosed as COVID-19 infected case, those will be treated in a special quarantine hospital. This type of conclusion will lead to the situation that, infected people will not be having the possibility of spreading and transmitting the virus to the others. For these reasons, we aim to predict the rate of infections in the south Indian region state of Tamil Nadu by using a modified SEIR model described above. The parameters of the SEIR model, which are dependent on time function ' ' and are modelled as below,
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