On predicting the novel COVID-19 human infections by using Infectious Disease modelling method in the Indian State of Tamil Nadu during 2020

Arsath Abbasali Ayubali; Sara Roshini Satheesh

Further, in this analysis, there is a consideration that the person infected with the novel Corona Virus 2019 has an incubation period during which the infected person could transmit the virus to a healthy person during this incubation period. These kinds of transmission during the incubation period have not been reported in case of Ebola or SARS viruses. Therefore, the rate of change in the states of the SIER parameter will depend on the past state and not only on the current state. Specifically, during the analysis of the modified SIER model, the present number of infections ( ( )) which depends on the time constraints is considered as two fragments. One was transferred by the human carrying the incubating COVID-19 virus and the other is the number of confirmed humans who are infected with the virus at the time interval ' '. A recent report (Qun, Li., M, Med., 2020) has assessed the incubation period and the average duration of the incubation period of the COVID-19 is reported to be 5.2 days (95 % of the Clinical Investigations are reported to be between 4.1 to 7 days) (Qun, Li., M, Med., 2020) . Therefore, in this analysis, for an efficient analysis, the incubation period has been chosen to be 7 days. Hence, from the above consideration, at a sample time ' ' an infected person who is confirmed to be infected with COVID-19 would have been exposed to the virus from a latent person before 7 days of the confirmation . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.