Author: Robert L Shuler
Title: Partial unlock model for COVID-19 or similar pandemic averts medical and economic disaster Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: lmmrnitr_21
Snippet: The ratio of total likely cases to known reported cases is taken at 6 (16.6% known) with alternative 109 scenarios checked at 5 (20% known). The lower numbers are more critical due to the way the model 110 calculates ventilator requirements. Published numbers are typically around 14% [7] , so our assumption 111 has some margin of safety. 112 A precise number for how long a case of COVID-19 lasts is of course not obtainable due to the 113 wide var.....
Document: The ratio of total likely cases to known reported cases is taken at 6 (16.6% known) with alternative 109 scenarios checked at 5 (20% known). The lower numbers are more critical due to the way the model 110 calculates ventilator requirements. Published numbers are typically around 14% [7] , so our assumption 111 has some margin of safety. 112 A precise number for how long a case of COVID-19 lasts is of course not obtainable due to the 113 wide variation. However this number is not critical for our model. They could last forever and the 114 herd immunity calculation would be unaffected since it includes both recovered and infected people. 115
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