Author: Wilson, Nick; Telfar Barnard, Lucy; Kvalsig, Amanda; Verrall, Ayesha; Baker, Michael G; Schwehm, Markus
Title: Modelling the Potential Health Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on a Hypothetical European Country Cord-id: rxv5lgq8 Document date: 2020_3_23
ID: rxv5lgq8
Snippet: A SEIR simulation model for the COVID-19 pandemic was developed (http://covidsim.eu) and applied to a hypothetical European country of 10 million population. Our results show which interventions potentially push the epidemic peak into the subsequent year (when vaccinations may be available) or which fail. Different levels of control (via contact reduction) resulted in 22% to 63% of the population sick, 0.2% to 0.6% hospitalised, and 0.07% to 0.28% dead (n=6,450 to 28,228).
Document: A SEIR simulation model for the COVID-19 pandemic was developed (http://covidsim.eu) and applied to a hypothetical European country of 10 million population. Our results show which interventions potentially push the epidemic peak into the subsequent year (when vaccinations may be available) or which fail. Different levels of control (via contact reduction) resulted in 22% to 63% of the population sick, 0.2% to 0.6% hospitalised, and 0.07% to 0.28% dead (n=6,450 to 28,228).
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