Author: Luis Angel Hierro-Recio; Antonio Jose Garzon-Gordon; Pedro Atienza-Montero; Jose Luis Marquez
Title: Predicting clinical needs derived from the COVID-19 pandemic: the case of Spain Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: aidtsyo1_35
Snippet: To date, predictive models for COVID-19 have focused on predicting changes from exponential adjustments for the growth in the infected population, without a predefined contagion model 6, 7 or with a predefined contagion model 8 . These types of adjustments are highly dependent on the estimated equation, and lose their predictive accuracy when the growth rate of infections decreases. They also fail to determine the most statistically efficient max.....
Document: To date, predictive models for COVID-19 have focused on predicting changes from exponential adjustments for the growth in the infected population, without a predefined contagion model 6, 7 or with a predefined contagion model 8 . These types of adjustments are highly dependent on the estimated equation, and lose their predictive accuracy when the growth rate of infections decreases. They also fail to determine the most statistically efficient maximum prediction time 6 . This makes them ineffective for prediction and prevents health authorities from obtaining reliable forecasts.
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