Proactive COVID-19 testing in a partially vaccinated population

McGee, R. S.; Homburger, J. R.; Williams, H. E.; Bergstrom, C. T.; Zhou, A. Y.

During the initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, many workplaces and universities implemented institution-wide proactive testing programs of all individuals, irrespective of symptoms. These measures have proven effective in mitigating outbreaks. As a greater fraction of the population becomes vaccinated, we need to understand what continued benefit, if any, proactive testing can contribute. Here, we address this problem with two distinct modeling approaches: a simple analytical model and a more simulation using the SEIRS+ platform. Both models indicate that proactive testing remains useful until a threshold level of vaccination is reached. This threshold depends on the transmissibility of the virus and the scope of other control measures in place. If a community is able to reach the threshold level of vaccination, testing can cease. Otherwise, continued testing will be an important component of disease control. Because it is usually difficult or impossible to precisely estimate key parameters such as the basic reproduction number for a specific workplace or other setting, our results are more useful for understanding general trends than for making precise quantitative predictions.