Hospital management in the COVID-19 emergency: Abelian Sandpile paradigm and beyond

Martucci, Roberta; Mascia, Corrado; Simeoni, Chiara; Tassi, Filippo

In this article, we propose a mathematical model -- based on a cellular automaton -- for the redistribution of patients within a network of hospitals with limited available resources, in order to reduce the risks of a local/global collapse of the healthcare system. We attempt at developing a conceptual tool to support making rational decisions relevant to the optimisation of the allocation of patients into accessible medical facilities. The strategy is based on a version of the Abelian Sandpile model for the Self-Organised Criticality, with the idea of testing the paradigm for the management of patients among the COVID-19 hospitals in Italian regions. In particular, we compare the novel proposal to the standard management of connections between hospitals, showing a number of advantages at a local and global level, by means of a reliable indicator function introduced for measuring the effectiveness of the allocation strategies.