Author: Ramses Djidjou-Demasse; Yannis Michalakis; Marc Choisy; Micea T. Sofonea; Samuel Alizon
Title: Optimal COVID-19 epidemic control until vaccine deployment Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: 5sdzyj0q_44
Snippet: cumulative number of deaths with the optimal control being at least 6,700 times smaller than when doing nothing. With the optimal control, the number of severe cases always remains below the healthcare capacity threshold, and thus the cumulative number of deaths indirectly attributable to the COVID-19 is minimized during the control period (Figure 2d ). An "intuitive" rule that emerges from the optimal control (Figure 2a) is (i) from the beginnin.....
Document: cumulative number of deaths with the optimal control being at least 6,700 times smaller than when doing nothing. With the optimal control, the number of severe cases always remains below the healthcare capacity threshold, and thus the cumulative number of deaths indirectly attributable to the COVID-19 is minimized during the control period (Figure 2d ). An "intuitive" rule that emerges from the optimal control (Figure 2a) is (i) from the beginning of the epidemic, gradually but rapidly increase control intensity to an intermediate level when the number of severe cases is still increasing and (ii) progressively decrease control intensity when the number of severe cases starts to decrease. Note that the relationship between control intensity c and the log of severe cases log 10 (I s ) seems quasi-linear.
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