Author: Oscar Patterson-Lomba
Title: Optimal timing for social distancing during an epidemic Document date: 2020_4_1
ID: cm91jxde_19
Snippet: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint Simulations for the optimal t 0 : final size Building on the findings from the previous section, in what follows we conduct a more comprehensive analysis of how the optimal timing of social distancing depends on R 0 , r and T , when the objective is to minimize the final epidemic size. Figure ( 3) indicates that R 0 is the key factor in determining when to initiate social.....
Document: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint Simulations for the optimal t 0 : final size Building on the findings from the previous section, in what follows we conduct a more comprehensive analysis of how the optimal timing of social distancing depends on R 0 , r and T , when the objective is to minimize the final epidemic size. Figure ( 3) indicates that R 0 is the key factor in determining when to initiate social distancing, with r and T having virtually no effect. As R 0 increases, the sooner social distancing should start (see Figure (6)). Importantly, the optimal timing is never immediately after the beginning of the epidemic, unless R 0 is extremely large.
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