Generalized logistic growth modeling of the COVID-19 outbreak in 29 provinces in China and in the rest of the world

Ke Wu; Didier Darcet; Qian Wang; Didier Sornette

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.11.20034363 doi: medRxiv preprint Figure 2 . Daily number of new observed confirmed cases for mainland China excluding Hubei (black circles) compared with 500 scenarios built by parametric bootstrap with a negative binomial error structure on the GRM model with best fit parameters determined on the data up to the time indicated by the vertical dashed line. The last time used in the calibration is respectively 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 days before Feb 22, 2020 from bottom to top. The red continuous line is the best fitted line and the two dashed red curves delineate the 95% confidence interval extracted from the 500 scenarios. The six panels correspond each to a different end date, shown as the sub-title of each panel, at which the data has been calibrated with the GRM model.