Effectiveness and resource requirements of test, trace and isolate strategies for COVID in the UK

He, Bobby; Zaidi, Sheheryar; Elesedy, Bryn; Hutchinson, Michael; Paleyes, Andrei; Harling, Guy; Johnson, Anne M.; Whye Teh, Yee

We use an individual-level transmission and contact simulation model to explore the effectiveness and resource requirements of various test-trace-isolate (TTI) strategies for reducing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK, in the context of different scenarios with varying levels of stringency of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Based on modelling results, we show that self-isolation of symptomatic individuals and quarantine of their household contacts has a substantial impact on the number of new infections generated by each primary case. We further show that adding contact tracing of non-household contacts of confirmed cases to this broader package of interventions reduces the number of new infections otherwise generated by 5–15%. We also explore impact of key factors, such as tracing application adoption and testing delay, on overall effectiveness of TTI.