Population-level COVID-19 mortality risk for non-elderly individuals overall and for non-elderly individuals without underlying diseases in pandemic epicenters

John P. A. Ioannidis; Cathrine Axfors; Despina G. Contopoulos-Ioannidis

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054361 doi: medRxiv preprint Table 4 shows the estimates of the absolute risk of dying with COVID-19 at the population level for people <65 years old and for those ≥80 years old as of April 4. For these estimates we used the total number of deaths as of the close of day April 4, 2020 and not just those where age information is available, assuming that the age stratification would be similar in all deaths as in the ones where age strata information has been released as of April 4. The absolute risk of death for people <65 years old ranged widely from 1.7 per million in Germany to 79 per million in New York City. The absolute risk of death for people ≥80 years old ranged from approximately 1 in 6 thousand in Germany to 1 in 420 in Spain. Table 5 shows the rates of road deaths per billion vehicle miles and the conversion of the absolute risk of COVID-19 death as of April 4 into motor vehicle travelled miles. The risk ranged from driving a total of 214 miles to 6684 miles. Dividing by the number of day since the first documented COVID-19 death, the risk of COVID-19 death for an individual <65 years old in the European countries is equivalent . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.