HAS COUNTRYWIDE LOCKDOWN WORKED AS A FEASIBLE MEASURE IN BENDING THE COVID-19 CURVE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES?

Nabi, K. N.; Robiul, I. M.

In the absence of any effective vaccine and clinically proven treatment, experts thought that strict lockdown measures could be an effective way to slow down the spread of novel coronavirus. Despite the strict lockdown measures in several developing countries, the number of newly infected cases is getting unbridled as time progresses. This anomaly ignites questions about the effectiveness of the prolonged strict confinement measures. In light of the above view, with an aim to find the answer to this question, trends of four epidemiological parameters: growth factor of daily reported COVID-19 cases, daily incidence proportion, daily cumulative index and effective reproduction number in five developing countries named Bangladesh, Brazil, Chile, Pakistan and South Africa have been analysed meticulously considering the different phases of their national lockdowns. Any compelling evidence has not been found in favor of country-wide lockdown effectiveness in the above-mentioned countries. Numerical results illustrate that stringent nationwide lockdown measures have failed bringing the epidemic threshold (Re) of COVID-19 under unity. In addition, citizens of the aforementioned countries have been struggling with catastrophic socio-economic consequences due to prolonged confinement measures. Our study suggests that a new policy should be proposed for developing countries to battle against future disease outbreaks ensuring a perfect balance between saving lives and confirming livelihoods.