Author: Narison, S.
Title: The First Month Spread of COVID-19 in Madagascar Cord-id: lag0v1uv Document date: 2020_4_27
ID: lag0v1uv
Snippet: Using the officially published data and aware of the unclear source and inaccurate number of samples, we present a first and (for the moment) unique attempt to study the spread of the pandemic COVID-19 in Madagascar. The approach has been tested by predicting the number of contaminated persons until 20 days after fitting the inputs data collected within 15 days using standard least {chi}2-fit method. Encouraged by this first test, we add the new data collected within 30 days and give prevision u
Document: Using the officially published data and aware of the unclear source and inaccurate number of samples, we present a first and (for the moment) unique attempt to study the spread of the pandemic COVID-19 in Madagascar. The approach has been tested by predicting the number of contaminated persons until 20 days after fitting the inputs data collected within 15 days using standard least {chi}2-fit method. Encouraged by this first test, we add the new data collected within 30 days and give prevision until 33 days. The present data show an approximate linear increase of about (4-5) infected persons per day while the analysis signals an eventual near future stronger growth. These results may also be interpreted as the lowest values of the real cases due to the insufficient number of samples (about 2200 for 20 millions of population). A comparison with some other approaches is done. Some social, economical and political impacts of COVID-19 and confinement for Madagascar and Worldwide are shortly discussed.
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