Author: Ira B Schwartz; James H Kaufman; Kun Hu; Simone Bianco
Title: Predicting the impact of asymptomatic transmission, non-pharmaceutical intervention and testing on the spread of COVID19 COVID19 Document date: 2020_4_22
ID: 6okpsuvu_55
Snippet: Appendix E: Comparison of SEAIR and SEIR predictions Figure 16 shows a comparison of SEIR and SEAIR epidemic curve as a function of the fraction of asymptomatic infectious, p. Our simulations show that, when a low fraction of asymptomatic is considered (p = 15%), the SEIR overestimates the infectious count, and slightly underestimates the position of the peak. When a larger fraction is considered (p = 85%), the SEIR predictions fail with respect .....
Document: Appendix E: Comparison of SEAIR and SEIR predictions Figure 16 shows a comparison of SEIR and SEAIR epidemic curve as a function of the fraction of asymptomatic infectious, p. Our simulations show that, when a low fraction of asymptomatic is considered (p = 15%), the SEIR overestimates the infectious count, and slightly underestimates the position of the peak. When a larger fraction is considered (p = 85%), the SEIR predictions fail with respect to both the size and timing of the peak.
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