COVID-19 in India: Predictions, Reproduction Number and Public Health Preparedness

Rai, B.; Shukla, A.; Dwivedi, L. K.

Abstract Introduction: The COVID-19 has emerged as a global concern for public health due to large scale outbreak. The number of confirmed cases has also been increased in India in the past few weeks. The predictions for the COVID-19 can provide insights into the epidemiology of the disease, which helps policymakers to check health system capacities. Methods: We obtained data on daily confirmed, recovered and death cases for a period of 21 days and have implemented the exponential growth model to predict future cases for all the three components. The mathematical model was used to calculate the average reproduction number and herd immunity. We estimated the number of active cases till the 30th of April. We have also tried to analyze the public health capacity to combat COVID-19 in India. Results: If the exponential growth in the number of cases continues then the total number of active cases will be 2,49,635 until the end of April. The reproduction number for COVID-19 in India was found to be 2.56 and herd immunity as 61%. The cumulative cases predicted by the mathematical model was 1,20,203. Discussion: This prediction provides an alarming situation for India in terms of public health preparedness. The number of tests is needed to increase to detect all the cases of COVID-19 in India. Though some serious preventive measures have been implemented, but India should be ready to face any sudden community outbreak. Keywords: COVID-19, India, predictions, reproduction number, public health capacity