Author: pierre magal; Glenn Webb
Title: Predicting the number of reported and unreported cases for the COVID-19 epidemic in South Korea, Italy, France and Germany Document date: 2020_3_24
ID: 9zeqigqa_46
Snippet: In this work we use the cumulative number of reported cases, the daily number of reported cases, and the weekly number of reported cases for four countries. With this data, we project the future number of cases, both reported and unreported, in each country. We assume a fraction f of total cases are unreported. We simulate our model with f = 0.6 and f = 0.1 for each country. The fractions f = 0.6 and f = 0.1 correspond to lesser and greater final.....
Document: In this work we use the cumulative number of reported cases, the daily number of reported cases, and the weekly number of reported cases for four countries. With this data, we project the future number of cases, both reported and unreported, in each country. We assume a fraction f of total cases are unreported. We simulate our model with f = 0.6 and f = 0.1 for each country. The fractions f = 0.6 and f = 0.1 correspond to lesser and greater final sizes, respectively. For South Korea, the epidemic has subsided, because of the major measures that were implemented to restrict public distancing. For Italy, France, and Germany, the epidemics are still rising, because these measures have been implemented only recently.
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