Author: Yuan Zhang; Chong You; Zhenghao Cai; Jiarui Sun; Wenjie Hu; Xiao-Hua Zhou
Title: Prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak based on a realistic stochastic model Document date: 2020_3_13
ID: 0xzsa21a_123
Snippet: Since the outbreak of COVID-19, the government has conducted large-scale medical tracking and quarantine measures. These non-negligible measures have a significant impact on the spread of COVID-19. The sub-states of E, A and IN in our model are able to reflect such tracking and quarantine measures. Moreover, we also take the latency between medical tracking and quarantine into account. What's more, it has been found that the proportion of asympto.....
Document: Since the outbreak of COVID-19, the government has conducted large-scale medical tracking and quarantine measures. These non-negligible measures have a significant impact on the spread of COVID-19. The sub-states of E, A and IN in our model are able to reflect such tracking and quarantine measures. Moreover, we also take the latency between medical tracking and quarantine into account. What's more, it has been found that the proportion of asymptomatic infected population is considerable. This justifies the introduction of state A. Finally, for an exposed and symptomatic individual, this model describes the complete process from infection to recovery(or death).
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