Risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation rises exponentially with age, inversely proportional to T-cell production

Palmer, S.; Cunniffe, N.; Donnelly, R.

Here we report that COVID-19 hospitalisation rates follow an exponential relationship with age, increasing by 4.5% per year of life (95% CI: 4.2-5.2%). This mirrors the exponential decline of thymus volume and T-cell production (decreasing by 4.5% per year). COVID-19 can therefore be added to the list of other diseases with this property, including those caused by MRSA, West Nile virus, Streptococcus Pneumonia and certain cancers, such as chronic myeloid leukemia and brain cancers. In addition, incidence of severe disease and mortality due to COVID-19 are both higher in men, consistent with the degree to which thymic involution (and the decrease in T-cell production with age) is more severe in men compared to women. For under 20s, COVID-19 incidence is remarkably low. A Bayesian analysis of daily hospitalisations, accounting for contact-based and environmental transmission, indicates that non-adults are the only age group to deviate significantly from the exponential relationship. Our model fitting suggests under 20s have 53-77% additional immune protection beyond that predicted by strong thymus function alone. We found no evidence for differences between age groups in susceptibility to overall infection, or, relative infectiousness to others. The simple inverse relationship between risk and thymus size we report here suggests that therapies based on T-cell mechanisms may be a promising target.