Prediction of New Coronavirus Infection Based on a Modified SEIR Model

Zhou Tang; Xianbin Li; Houqiang Li

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.03.20030858 doi: medRxiv preprint meets the classic assumptions: 1. The normal birth rate and mortality during the study period are not considered; 2. The influence of external factors on the model parameters is ignored; 3. The transmission method is person-to-person. The model divides the total population into four categories: susceptible populations (S, not yet infected but at risk of being infected), latent or exposed people (E, including people with mild or asymptomatic but infectious populations), Infected (I, confirmed to be infectious) and removed (R, including those who have been cured and died from neocoronavirus infection). The first case of New Coronavirus infection was found on December 8, 2019. The average incubation period of New Coronavirus infection was 7 days, so this article believes that the first patient infected with New Coronavirus may already exist on December 1, 2019. It has not been diagnosed yet, this article classifies those who have been infected with the new coronavirus but are not diagnosed as latent people; when the latent people are diagnosed as infected people, they will be treated in isolation in the hospital, then I think the infected people will no longer have the possibility of infecting others. Establish models using ordinary differential equations based on model assumptions(1)