Prediction of Peak and Termination of Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Epidemic in Iran

AmirPouyan Zahiri; Sepehr RafieeNasab; Ehsan Roohi

More complicated mathematical models were obtained as the susceptible-exposedinfectious-recovered (SEIR) model. SEIR model is engaged upon anticipating the potential domestic and international spread of the COVID-19 outbreak [2] . The intricate models need more attempts for the man parameter identification. Accordingly, Nesteruk [3, 4] developed an appropriate mathematical model of contamination and SIR-model of spreading an infection to predict the time dynamics of the unknown children's disease, which occurred in Chernivtsi (Ukraine), and COVID-19 China epidemic. In this paper, the known SIR model for the dynamics of an epidemic [5] [6] [7] [8] is used to identify Iran (COVID-19) epidemic in Iran. In this respect, an exact solution of the SIR linear equations is considered simultaneously with a statistical approach based on the confirmed and recovered victims as the reliable long-time statistical data of Iran [4] . Main epidemic characteristics such as epidemic victim numbers, infected, and recovered people are estimated over time. Furthermore, Iran's official data [9, 10] are fitted to the China epidemic curve [11] [12] [13] and compared with the results of the SIR model.