Author: AmirPouyan Zahiri; Sepehr RafieeNasab; Ehsan Roohi
Title: Prediction of Peak and Termination of Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Epidemic in Iran Document date: 2020_3_31
ID: 3bmcglan_26
Snippet: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . The optimal calculated values of parameters are shown in Table. 1. Also, Table 2 lists the values obtained by the SIR model for the COVID-19 epidemic in Iran. As can be observed, the official statistical data of Iran for the susceptible and recovered people were used for the extrapolation process. It has been predicted that the maximum number of infected people would oc.....
Document: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . The optimal calculated values of parameters are shown in Table. 1. Also, Table 2 lists the values obtained by the SIR model for the COVID-19 epidemic in Iran. As can be observed, the official statistical data of Iran for the susceptible and recovered people were used for the extrapolation process. It has been predicted that the maximum number of infected people would occur on 27.03.2020, and the disease peak would occur on 19.03.2020 (which was obtained based on the calculation of infection rate). Hence, due to a 2-to 3-day difference between death and infection peaks, there is a good agreement between the curves depicted in Figs. 1 and 2 . The infection rate would be zero at the beginning of May 2020, and the number . CC-BY-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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