Selected article for: "epidemic model and reproduction number"
Author: Yuan Zhang; Chong You; Zhenghao Cai; Jiarui Sun; Wenjie Hu; Xiao-Hua Zhou
Title: Prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak based on a realistic stochastic model
  • Document date: 2020_3_13
    • ID: 0xzsa21a_95
    Snippet: Based on the estimated parameters, future trajectories of the epidemic are simulated using the proposed stochastic dynamic model. For each region, 1000 simulations are conducted to produce the 95% confidence interval for the epidemic evolution of some key populations. In this section, the predictions of populations of states, the containment time of the outbreak, the controlled reproduction number R c , and a test on the effectiveness of the curr.....
    Document: Based on the estimated parameters, future trajectories of the epidemic are simulated using the proposed stochastic dynamic model. For each region, 1000 simulations are conducted to produce the 95% confidence interval for the epidemic evolution of some key populations. In this section, the predictions of populations of states, the containment time of the outbreak, the controlled reproduction number R c , and a test on the effectiveness of the current medical tracking policy are reported. Figure 4 plots the 95% confidence interval of:

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