Predictions for COVID-19 outbreak in India using Epidemiological models

Rajesh Ranjan

It is known that the effects of social distancing become visible only after a few days from the lockdown. This is because the symptoms of the COVID-19 typically take some time to appear after getting infected from the Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. The average incubation period is normally 5-6 days but it may take 2-14 days according to the CDC. Table 3 shows the list of a few countries and cities with their lockdown status. Particularly, we focus on the lockdown in the Hubei province of China, where it was enforced on Feb 2. Figure 4 shows the number of confirmed cases as well as increase per day in Hubei. As shown in Figure 4 (a), on the date of lockdown, Hubei had 11,177 cases (Lockdown in Wuhan, Capital city of Hubei was announced much earlier on January 23, when the country had just 830 cases). 2 Data till March 28, 2020. Hubei has an anomaly in data as no new case was reported on Feb 12 and abruptly high number of cases (∼ 15000) were reported on the following day.