Predictions for COVID-19 outbreak in India using Epidemiological models

Rajesh Ranjan

Current models predict the transmissions due to stage-1 (individuals with a travel history to high-risk countries) and stage-2 (person-to-person contact). It should be noted that if the reported number of cases begins to exceed the predicted end-state systematically, then the pandemic will enter a new stage, and none of the models described above will be applicable. Although as of March 30, there is no strong evidence for community transmission (which can be achieved only by extensive testing and enlarging testing criteria). However, high population density as well as social and demographical issues puts India on a high risk for community transmission (stage-3). Although, the social distancing and rigorous contact tracing measures taken by India may help in containing these transmissions to small clusters, migration of labourers and workers could worsen the situation. Therefore, these factors should be considered while making informed decisions based on the present study.