Epidemiology of 631 Cases of COVID-19 Identified in Jiangsu Province Between January 1(st) and March 20(th) 2020: Factors Associated with Disease Severity and Analysis of Zero Mortality

Ji, Hong; Dai, Qigang; Jin, Hui; Xu, Ke; Ai, Jing; Fang, Xinyu; Shi, Naiyang; Huang, Haodi; Wu, Ying; Peng, Zhihang; Hu, Jianli; Zhu, Liguo; Bao, Changjun; Wu, Ming

BACKGROUND: This retrospective study aimed to investigate the factors associated with disease severity and patient outcomes in 631 patients with COVID-19 who were reported to the Jiangsu Commission of Health between January 1 and March 20, 2020. MATERIAL/METHODS: We conducted an epidemiological investigation enrolling 631 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 from our clinic from January to March 2020. Patients’ information was collected through a standard questionnaire. Then, we described the patients’ epidemiological characteristics, analyzed risk factors associated with disease severity, and assessed causes of zero mortality. Additionally, some key technologies for epidemic prevention and control were identified. RESULTS: Of the 631 patients, 8.46% (n=53) were severe cases, and no deaths were recorded (n=0). The epidemic of COVID-19 has gone through 4 stages: a sporadic phase, an exponential growth phase, a peak plateau phase, and a declining phase. The proportion of severe cases was significantly different among the 4 stages and 13 municipal prefectures (P<0.001). Factors including age >65 years old, underlying medical conditions, highest fever >39.0°C, dyspnea, and lymphocytopenia (<1.0×10(9)/L) were early warning signs of disease severity (P<0.05). In contrast, earlier clinic visits were associated with better patient outcomes (P=0.029). Further, the viral load was a potentially useful marker associated with COVID-19 infection severity. CONCLUSIONS: The study findings from the beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic in Jiangsu Province, China showed that patients who were more than 65 years of age and with comorbidities and presented with a fever of more than 39.0°C developed more severe disease. However, mortality was prevented in this initial patient population by early supportive clinical management.