Potential dissemination of epidemics based on Brazilian mobile geolocation data. Part I: Population dynamics and future spreading of infection in the states of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro during the pandemic of COVID-19.

Pedro S. Peixoto; Diego R. Marcondes; Cláudia M Peixoto; Lucas Queiroz; Rafael Gouveia; Afonso Delgado; Sérgio M Oliva

The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.07.20056739 doi: medRxiv preprint suitable for the initial exponential spread of the disease. Once we have more reliable data, we can incorporate other nuances of the disease spread and infection to get more adequate models for the next stages of the spread. So, in order to model the spatial spread of the disease in this early stage, we consider a metapopulation model which relates the evolution of a disease inside a population with two terms, one referring to the spread within the location and another to the spread to and from other locations. The spread within each location is modelled as a SI model, while the spread between locations is based on the mobile data, more specifically on the transition matrices. In the proposed model, the evolution of , the number of infected in region at time , is modelled as in which is the transmission rate within each region, is a free parameter used to correct the overestimation or underestimation of movement between the locations, is the population of region and is a measure of the movement from region to region at time , calculated from the transition matrices in the following way.