Author: Yuan Zhang; Chong You; Zhenghao Cai; Jiarui Sun; Wenjie Hu; Xiao-Hua Zhou
Title: Prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak based on a realistic stochastic model Document date: 2020_3_13
ID: 0xzsa21a_102
Snippet: The controlled reproduction number, R c , reflects the transmission ability of the epidemic, which is one of the most important quantities in epidemiology. In this study, the evolution of R c is approximated by the ratio between the in-and-out flows of the active virus carriers in a given time period, that is, for a time interval of length ∆t, say [t, t + ∆t], we keep tracking the transitions that leads to the increase/decrease of the active .....
Document: The controlled reproduction number, R c , reflects the transmission ability of the epidemic, which is one of the most important quantities in epidemiology. In this study, the evolution of R c is approximated by the ratio between the in-and-out flows of the active virus carriers in a given time period, that is, for a time interval of length ∆t, say [t, t + ∆t], we keep tracking the transitions that leads to the increase/decrease of the active virus carrier population E and IN , with their accumulative numbers recorded. Precisely speaking, we define
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