Author: Yuan Zhang; Chong You; Zhenghao Cai; Jiarui Sun; Wenjie Hu; Xiao-Hua Zhou
Title: Prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak based on a realistic stochastic model Document date: 2020_3_13
ID: 0xzsa21a_24
Snippet: The evolution of an epidemic is usually described by either a deterministic dynamic model Kermack and McKendrick (1927) or a stochastic one ; Bailey (1975) , among which, the stochastic model is generally considered more realistic than the deterministic counterpart. Stochastic models often use a continuous time, compartment Markov Process to describe the evolution of the epidemic. See for instances, ; ; ; Bailey (1975) for pioneering works, and ;.....
Document: The evolution of an epidemic is usually described by either a deterministic dynamic model Kermack and McKendrick (1927) or a stochastic one ; Bailey (1975) , among which, the stochastic model is generally considered more realistic than the deterministic counterpart. Stochastic models often use a continuous time, compartment Markov Process to describe the evolution of the epidemic. See for instances, ; ; ; Bailey (1975) for pioneering works, and ; Zhang and Wang (2013) ; ; for recent developments. See also Wilkinson et al. (2017) and the references therein for a brief review.
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