Author: Robert L Shuler
Title: Partial unlock model for COVID-19 or similar pandemic averts medical and economic disaster Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: lmmrnitr_17
Snippet: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint We expect numerous models to come into play in an actual policy implementation, and regional 86 authorities to do their own modeling. In addition, we want our model to be comprehensible by the March 21 the rate of spread decreases continuously, which we presume is due to increased government 95 directed social distancing including widespread business closure, stay at home.....
Document: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint We expect numerous models to come into play in an actual policy implementation, and regional 86 authorities to do their own modeling. In addition, we want our model to be comprehensible by the March 21 the rate of spread decreases continuously, which we presume is due to increased government 95 directed social distancing including widespread business closure, stay at home orders, and increased 96 public compliance with these policies. For the model's initial value we adopted a daily spread rate of 97 1.414. The fraction of new cases is then R=0.414. This number is immediately replaced in the model 98 by the next day's rate, and adjusted by the computed herd immunity factor when re-used following 99 unlock. The unlock spread rate should be measured and adjusted, but there has yet been no unlock. 100
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