Author: Richard A Neher; Robert Dyrdak; Valentin Druelle; Emma B Hodcroft; Jan Albert
Title: Potential impact of seasonal forcing on a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic Document date: 2020_2_17
ID: 3p2dl8yf_35
Snippet: For Hubei, we use the same parameters as described in section IV. The variation in R 0 and migration rate result in a super-position of fast and slow epidemics seeded at different times. The initial phase is dominated by fast epidemics driving rapid dispersal, in particular in the tropics, while slow epidemics dominate later in 2020 and 2021. With the parameter setting used in Fig. 4 , the Northern temperate regions see most circulation in winter.....
Document: For Hubei, we use the same parameters as described in section IV. The variation in R 0 and migration rate result in a super-position of fast and slow epidemics seeded at different times. The initial phase is dominated by fast epidemics driving rapid dispersal, in particular in the tropics, while slow epidemics dominate later in 2020 and 2021. With the parameter setting used in Fig. 4 , the Northern temperate regions see most circulation in winter 2020/2021. In accordance with Fig. 3 , this peak shifts more towards early 2020 for higher R 0 , see Supplementary Fig. 7 .
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