Author: Kurita, J.; Sugawara, T.; Ohkusa, Y.
Title: First peak of COVID-19 outbreak in Japan might pass as of April 26, 2020 Cord-id: m9s1ecw5 Document date: 2020_5_1
ID: m9s1ecw5
Snippet: Background: The COVID-19 outbreak has two inconsistent phenomena: its reproduction number is almost two; and it shows earlier and lower peaks for new cases and the total number of patients. Object: To resolve this difficulty, we constructed a mathematical model that can explain these phenomena. Method: We applied a susceptible-infected-model with the proportion of asymptomatic patients among the infected (q) as a key parameter for estimation as well as the basic reproduction number (R0). Results
Document: Background: The COVID-19 outbreak has two inconsistent phenomena: its reproduction number is almost two; and it shows earlier and lower peaks for new cases and the total number of patients. Object: To resolve this difficulty, we constructed a mathematical model that can explain these phenomena. Method: We applied a susceptible-infected-model with the proportion of asymptomatic patients among the infected (q) as a key parameter for estimation as well as the basic reproduction number (R0). Results: We observed the first outbreak peak in Japan on April 3 for those infected on March 29 .Their R0 and q were estimated respectively as 2.048 and 99.987%. Discussion and Conclusion: By introducing a very high proportion of asymptomatic cases, two inconsistent phenomena might be resolved. This hypothesis should be verified through additional study.
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