Author: Gabriel G. Katul; Assaad Mrad; Sara Bonetti; Gabriele Manoli; Anthony J. Parolari
Title: Global convergence of COVID-19 basic reproduction number and estimation from early-time SIR dynamics Document date: 2020_4_14
ID: 3iec1te8_19
Snippet: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.10.20060954 doi: medRxiv preprint spread rate and testing capacity increase rate, i.e., exp [(R 0 − 1 + k)t] and 264 log (di a /dt) ∼ (R 0 − 1 + k) log (i a ). Therefore, the log-log slope will be initially greater 265 than (R 0 − 1) while the rate of testing increases and then converge to (R 0 − 1) 266 asymptotically as testing.....
Document: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.10.20060954 doi: medRxiv preprint spread rate and testing capacity increase rate, i.e., exp [(R 0 − 1 + k)t] and 264 log (di a /dt) ∼ (R 0 − 1 + k) log (i a ). Therefore, the log-log slope will be initially greater 265 than (R 0 − 1) while the rate of testing increases and then converge to (R 0 − 1) 266 asymptotically as testing reaches steady-state. Indeed, this effect is widely observed in 267 the global and smaller-scale data, indicating that the imprint of testing ramp-up fully 268 dissipates (at least at the country scale) and the observed convergent slope remains a 269 robust indicator of the early phases of virus dynamics.
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