Author: Gabriel G. Katul; Assaad Mrad; Sara Bonetti; Gabriele Manoli; Anthony J. Parolari
Title: Global convergence of COVID-19 basic reproduction number and estimation from early-time SIR dynamics Document date: 2020_4_14
ID: 3iec1te8_4
Snippet: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.10.20060954 doi: medRxiv preprint The basic reproduction number 100 As earlier stated, the average rate of recovery is set to γ = 1/D. Given the value of D 101 (in days), the probability that an individual remains infected in an infinitesimal time 102 period δτ is 1 − γ(δτ ). Therefore, the probability that this individual remains.....
Document: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.10.20060954 doi: medRxiv preprint The basic reproduction number 100 As earlier stated, the average rate of recovery is set to γ = 1/D. Given the value of D 101 (in days), the probability that an individual remains infected in an infinitesimal time 102 period δτ is 1 − γ(δτ ). Therefore, the probability that this individual remains infected 103 for an amount of time τ is lim δτ →0 (1 − γδτ ) τ /(δτ ) = exp (−γτ ). In other words, τ , the 104 time that an infected individual remains infected, is exponentially distributed with an 105 average of D = 1/γ.
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