Author: MERIEM ALLALI; PATRICK PORTECOP; MICHEL CARLES; DOMINIQUE GIBERT
Title: Prediction of the time evolution of the COVID-19 disease in Guadeloupe with a stochastic evolutionary model Document date: 2020_4_16
ID: cm678hn4_27
Snippet: The explicit definition of the rules and the fact that they apply to each node of the network provides a great flexibility to account for more or less sophisticated conditions. For instance, the switching probabilities may easily account for the age of each person. Also, and indeed the model does it, we may consider that a switch from one state to another takes place in a given time interval whose duration is constrained by clinical data. The mod.....
Document: The explicit definition of the rules and the fact that they apply to each node of the network provides a great flexibility to account for more or less sophisticated conditions. For instance, the switching probabilities may easily account for the age of each person. Also, and indeed the model does it, we may consider that a switch from one state to another takes place in a given time interval whose duration is constrained by clinical data. The model is also able to use a time-varying basic reproductive number R 0 (t k ) in order to account for the effects of containment and social isolation. The nodes may be assigned to different subsets in order to define regions with given populations. Rules may be defined to account for interactions between regions. In the present study, this possibility has not been implemented due to the lack of data to constrain the process. 2. the number Z I of initial "I".
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