Predictions for COVID-19 outbreak in India using Epidemiological models

Rajesh Ranjan

The basic reproduction number R 0 using SIR model is 1.504, which is much higher than the initial values reported by Sahasranaman and Kumar [10] using the SIR model but it is close to the values reported by Deb and Majumdar [16] who used auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The initial doubling time from the SIR model is 4.8 days. These values can be compared with estimated epidemiologic parameters from COVID-19 in Wuhan [17] , where R 0 and initial doubling time were about 1.9, and 5.4 days respectively. For US, particularly New York and New Jersey, the estimated R 0 is very large [16] . However, as Ridenhour et al. [18] pointed that R 0 "is a complicated property of an epidemic specific to the underlying model used to estimate it, the population being studied (in terms of contact patterns and demography), the host, the pathogen, and often the specific strain of the pathogen". They suggested that this number may vary geographically due to changes in the environment, population structure, viral evolution, and immunity as well as healthcare and immigration policies. . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.