The impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic on labor market conditions in Nevada: A preliminary assessment

Tuman, John P.

This study provides a preliminary assessment of the impact of the pandemic on labor market conditions in Nevada. The analysis applies a locally weighted regression method (Lowess curve fitting) to time‐series data on weekly initial and continuing unemployment claims. Other measures of labor market outcomes are also included in the analysis. The findings suggest that while baseline conditions were relatively stable, the pandemic has generated an increase in unemployment in Nevada, and a steep rise in the number of unemployed workers covered by unemployment insurance. However, the largest growth in initial weekly unemployment claims may have already occurred. In addition, given the weight of leisure and hospitality in overall nonfarm employment, workers in that sector have been at elevated risk for unemployment. It is also possible that Latino and Asian workers will experience higher levels of unemployment. Finally, the study suggests that a history of inadequate financing has undermined the administrative capacity of the state's unemployment agency, with attendant consequences for its ability to process new claims. Likewise, the volume of continuing claims raises questions about the financial solvency of Nevada's unemployment insurance trust fund.